Growth investors are always on the lookout for the next possible tech megatrend that has the potential to create life-changing wealth for those who buy in early. If the more optimistic projections are accurate, quantum computing could be that next trend, and it could start delivering on its promise within the next five years.
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) is one of a number of publicly traded pure-play quantum computing specialists trying to make a name for themselves. But what might the next half-decade have in store for its investors?
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Conventional computers store and process data in bits, which can only be in one of two states: 1 or 0. Quantum computers use “qubits,” which (through the peculiar properties of quantum mechanics) can temporarily exist in a state called superposition — having values that are neither 1 nor 0, but probability amplitudes. This allows them to perform calculations in an entirely different way from the digital devices we use every day. If they can be made to work in a reliable and cost-effective way, quantum computers could have numerous commercial applications, as they can, in theory, rapidly solve certain unusually complex types of problems that would take the world’s most powerful supercomputers years or centuries.
Among the most commonly cited potential real-world applications for quantum computing are pharmaceutical drug discovery, materials science, logistics, and cybersecurity. But as with many new technologies, more applications are likely to emerge as it matures. And the timelines for bringing this technology to market in a serious way seem remarkably optimistic.
Industry leader IBM, which has been working on the technology since the 1980s, has said it believes it will be able to build a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Alphabet is also setting an aggressive timeline, projecting that commercially viable quantum computers could be ready within five years.
Two of the key challenges every company working on this technology is trying to solve are error mitigation and correction. Qubits are incredibly sensitive to outside interference, and as a result, they can easily switch states, resulting in the computers delivering incorrect results. In late 2024, Alphabet impressed the tech world by announcing that its Willow quantum chip had solved a key aspect of the error correction problem. That could pave the way for useful large-scale quantum computing systems.
