I worry when prices run without pause, when ₹6,500-psf pockets jump up 300% in 4 years, and sell at ₹25,000 per sq. ft. I worry when end-users are priced out and investors line up for second and third homes. And I worry most when buyers cut cheques on a broker’s pitch without ever seeing the site. By any marker, these are classic red flags of an overheated market.
That’s what’s happening in Noida. And to be clear, I’m talking about just Noida and the first 15 kilometres of Noida Expressway. Not its ever-stretching cousins: Noida Extension, Greater Noida or the Yamuna Expressway.
So, what’s powering this irrational price run — and will it hold or crack?
Numbers first, always
I’ve spoken to top developers (even with those with no skin in Noida), brokers and every major data aggregator. The verdict is unanimous: prices can stay irrational for a while, because supply is tight.
Data from CRE Matrix shows just how dramatically Noida has flipped between 2021 and 2025. Supply of homes under ₹3 crore has crashed from 3,900 units to just 260, while launches above ₹5 crore have shot up from a mere 2 units to 1,920 — pulling in nearly ₹10,000 crore into the ultra-luxury segment this year alone. Inventory overhang is only 4 months for homes below ₹3 crore, 8 months in the ₹3–5 crore band, and 15 months above ₹5 crore. Even at the top end, there’s no glut building up.
It’s easy to blame developers for cashing in or ignoring mid income and affordable housing, but the reality is more complicated. There’s barely any room, or incentive, to launch lower-priced homes when overall construction costs have risen nearly 40% in four years post COVID, as a Colliers 2024 report points out. In other words, some of the price escalation is opportunistic — but a large part is baked into the cost structure itself.
Behind the infra hype
Infrastructure is the other headline: Noida International Airport, Faridabad-Noida- Ghaziabad Expressway, Noida – Greater Noida metro extension. Yes, many of these are hyped ay before their time, but they are coming. Infrastructure shortens time, changes perceptions of convenience, and brings in buyers from neighbouring states. But infrastructure alone doesn’t magically create sustainable, high-end demand. Two extra facts matter. Noida’s land is physically constrained (≈203 sq km). The Noida Authority controls the land, its auctions and availability taking away the risk of oversupply. Limited developable land stock on the Expressway corridor compounds scarcity. The first 10 kilometre stretch is at its highest premium today.
Will the jobs boom really come?
Only if companies move in, not just infrastructure. Gurgaon’s meteoric rise was fuelled by large enterprise HQs and multinational offices setting up early, creating high-paying jobs that, in turn, drove housing demand. Today, Gurgaon has roughly 120 million sq. ft. of Grade A office stock — almost double Noida’s ~62 million, and its rentals average around ₹110 per sq. ft., compared with Noida’s ~ ₹70.
TCS, Microsoft, Infosys, JP Morgan and any other have already announced campuses in this region and more will follow. With the Jewar international airport set to go live in 2026, the cost arbitrage for MNCs and GCCs is too big to ignore. Based on the upcoming offices, experts forecast that 2,500 -3000 new CXOs could move to Noida in the next five years. Bottom line: jobs too will come, and that matters for long-term end-user housing demand.
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Who’s buying right now?
Almost every launch from big developers, be it Max Estates, Godrej, L&T or M3M, has been declared sold out. But this isn’t purely end-user demand; this is after all Delhi-NCR, where financier-investors and broker-led buyers dominate, and end users typically come in later. But in Noida’s case, there is end user demand as well : Delhi upgraders seeking managed lifestyles at prices Delhi simply can’t offer, and SMEs and HNIs from across the state of Uttar Pradesh. Fact is, Delhi isn’t adding new supply. Gurgaon is straining under infrastructure issues and even more expensive prices. For buyers from UP, Noida is the most aspirational city by far.
End-user alert: Tread carefully
Yes, Noida’s real estate story looks strong, but if you’re an end user, tread carefully. Markets shift, and when they do, all the “bullish” numbers can collapse. We’re also in an unusual phase where every asset class has run up. A chunk of stock-market gains has flowed into property via capital-gains exemptions under section 54F. Those equity gains are looking slimmer, going forward.
Execution risk too is rising. Launches and sales may be strong, but construction has started to lag, as red flagged by a recent Liases Foras report. And NCR’s history with stuck projects is hardly comforting. If delays return, buyer confidence will vanish as quickly as it surged.
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If you’re buying to live, don’t overlook the secondary market. There’s still plenty of ready to move in inventory in the ₹2–4 crore range. Maybe low on high-gloss specs, but more carpet area and immediate possession. I’d take that today — and switch to a better project later, once it’s actually ready or near completion.
It’s the real-estate equivalent of writing a put on a heated stock — limited downside, and no sleepless nights.
Manisha Natarajan is a well-known editorial voice in real estate and sustainable built environment