WHEN THE European Union increased tariffs on Chinese battery electric vehicles (EVs) in 2024, the logic was straightforward: raise prices and imports will fall. A study published by the Kiel Institute, a think-tank, estimated that higher levies would cause Chinese car exports to plunge by 25%. After more than a year, that forecast is wrong. According to China’s customs agency, car exports to Europe rose to nearly 1.2m in the 12 months to November, up by 26% from a year earlier (see chart 1). The data suggest that Europe’s failure to stem the rise of Chinese-made vehicles has less to do with weak tariffs than Chinese carmakers’ talent for steering around them.




